## CANCELLLED Statistics Seminar - Abdel El-Shaarawi

- Calendar
- Mathematics & Statistics

- Date
- 01.28.2020 3:30 pm - 5:00 pm

### Description

**Location HH-305**

**THIS SEMINAR IS CANCELLED DUE TO ILLNESS**Speaker: Abdel El-Shaarawi (Cairo University)

Title: Water Issues and Statistical Inference

Abstract: I will discuss two case studies: one on water quality of the Niagara River and the other on water quantity for the Nile River. For the Niagara River; the problem is estimating the yearly average daily sediment Load (ADL)from Lake Erie to Niagara

River at Fort Erie (FE) and from the River to Lake Ontario at Niagara on the

Lake (NOTL). The diff erence between the loads for the two stations represents the

differential load which is likely to be attributed to the action of water flow over the

Niagara Falls. Several ad hoc methods are often used to estimate ADL, without

knowing the assumptions required for them to produce reliable estimators. Here

these assumptions are specified. At least two components are involved in estimating

ADL: water flow and sediment concentration. The flow is accurately available for

every day of the year but the concentration is available for only few days within the

year. A finite population based model is presented that predicts the concentrations

for the missing days conditional on the available flow and concentration data. The

model is then used to estimate ADL sediment for both the stations during the year

2010. For this year the flow is available for 365 days but the sediment concentration

is available for only 25 and 26 days for FE and NOTL respectively. The model is

used to predict the sediment concentration for the missing 340 and 339 days which

are combined with the flow to estimate ADL for each station and for the difference

load between the two stations.

For the Nile; the problem is to study the impact of constructing the Grand Ethiopian

Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia on the traditional

share of water for Sudan and Egypt. Millions of people in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia

depend on the Blue Nile's water for agriculture, industry and domestic use. The

focus will be on the analysis of historical rainfall data, which is collected from more

than 100 sampling stations within the River's watershed on the Ethiopian Plateau.

The intention is to develop a model for predicting the changes in the discharge to

the Nile from the Blue Nile as a result of the changes in yearly rainfall yield. The

importance of this prediction is related to the Ethiopian management of filling the

huge GERD reservoir whose capacity equals more than a one year total flow of the

Blue Nile. The model takes into account the effects of El Niño and La Niña events

where the first is associated with low rainfall while the second is associated with

high rainfall.