BABINE SMOLT MARK-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS
Programed in True BASIC by Peter Macdonald
Voice:  +1 (905) 679-9956
 
Version 1.6 (1999-01-22)
 
Sampling began on 1994-05-04
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
First day of sampling: 1994-05-04
 
Notes:  Recov      Number of smolts from this release group that were
                   eventually recovered.
        Est Marks  Total number of marks in the run on this day, estimated
                   by the 'Constant Sampling Fraction' model.
        Recaps     Total number of recaptures in the sample on this day.
 
Day * Release * Recov * Est Marks *  Sample * Recaps *   Run Est *    Date
  1      1556      89      279.73     22586       16      394874  1994-05-04
  2      1526      94      359.65      4672       21       80014  1994-05-05
  3      1534      74      488.27     15649       29      263483  1994-05-06
  4      2991     128      520.74     10051       31      168838  1994-05-07
  5      3071     127      268.49      4826       16       80983  1994-05-08
  6      3065     129     1025.31     19320       58      341534  1994-05-09
  7      3037     153      365.88      5494       19      105796  1994-05-10
  8      3066     146      752.88      7900       35      169936  1994-05-11
  9      3045     148     2192.97     15955       97      360709  1994-05-12
 10      3063     185     4310.39     20200      191      455863  1994-05-13
 11      3099     201     4217.76     19652      195      425063  1994-05-14
 12      3076     218     2434.52     10932      117      227471  1994-05-15
 13      3066     201     2193.82     10439      112      204476  1994-05-16
 14      3082     154     6265.54     40412      350      723437  1994-05-17
 15      3099     118     4395.66     58956      250     1036602  1994-05-18
 16      3093      52     2560.99     28987      135      549892  1994-05-19
 17      3068      70     7090.86    285178      376     5378079  1994-05-20
 18      3074      40     4071.66    578262      124    18987791  1994-05-21
 19      3085      29     2533.74    465721       59    20000283  1994-05-22
 20      3067      36     4846.24    589330       70    40800497  1994-05-23
 21      3086      53     4374.28    328622       75    19166463  1994-05-24
 22      3058      35     4635.19    114282       67     7906254  1994-05-25
 23      3054      28     1957.56     72114       22     6416717  1994-05-26
 24      3057      29     2740.44     73153       29     6912804  1994-05-27
 25      3098      28     3332.17     79111       33     7988211  1994-05-28
 26      3071      43     2781.75    117486       33     9903521  1994-05-29
 27      3003      57     1590.62     59629       23     4123778  1994-05-30
 28      3014      62     2961.01     23971       47     1510178  1994-05-31
 29      3053      61     4098.63     52080       70     3049378  1994-06-01
 30      3019      94     2131.06     34180       44     1655445  1994-06-02
 31      3041      72     2838.89     35643       74     1367385  1994-06-03
 32      2971      68     3214.01     38908       75     1667342  1994-06-04
 33         0       0     2384.40     21356       57      893355  1994-06-05
 34         0       0     1543.57     13506       36      579095  1994-06-06
 35         0       0      865.08     30962       21     1275464  1994-06-07
 36         0       0      392.30     23046        9     1004558  1994-06-08
 37         0       0      135.98     17122        3      776063  1994-06-09
 38         0       0       50.05     17355        1      868604  1994-06-10
 39         0       0       43.69     19790        1      864648  1994-06-11
 40         0       0       42.24      1498        1       63270  1994-06-12
 41         0       0         .00      2932        0       -9999  1994-06-13
 
Total run =   168748155
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-16 (Day 13)
Early run =     2847095     1.7%
Late run  =   165901060    98.3%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .01478  .02955  .07920  .17671  .20095  .21158  .11998  .08983  .04196 .03546 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .16241  .28120  .18271  .15940  .12707  .03609  .03008  .00752  .00902 .00451 
 

 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-16 (Day 13)
Chisq =  1241.352    df =  261 
Early run  =     2846203     1.7%
Std. error =      167373
 
Late run   =   160521147    98.3%
Std. error =     7005056
 
Total run  =   163367350
Std. error =     7007055
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .00379  .02095  .07582  .18881  .21899  .20195  .11639  .09100  .04408 .03825 
 
 .00136  .00379  .00709  .01043  .01095  .01008  .00806  .00738  .00534 .00507 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .13487  .23845  .17773  .17062  .14317  .05176  .04769  .01226  .01514 .00832 
 
 .00853  .01093  .01011  .01030  .00980  .00689  .00695  .00364  .00416 .00320 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-17 (Day 14)
Early run =     3074566     1.8%
Late run  =   165673589    98.2%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .01479  .03803  .07924  .17274  .23349  .19493  .11146  .08030  .04226 .03275 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .18866  .31178  .20106  .16298  .05934  .03277  .02834  .00886  .00266 .00354 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-17 (Day 14)
Chisq =  1079.5834    df =  261 
Early run  =     3172895     1.9%
Std. error =      171896
 
Late run   =   164986259    98.1%
Std. error =     7120442
 
Total run  =   168159154
Std. error =     7122516
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .00530  .02905  .07436  .18453  .23331  .19113  .11408  .08513  .04623 .03689 
 
 .00164  .00409  .00647  .00983  .01028  .00946  .00778  .00696  .00531 .00485 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .14659  .29015  .20635  .17164  .07664  .04555  .04094  .01305  .00372 .00537 
 
 .00922  .01284  .01158  .01090  .00837  .00678  .00658  .00382  .00203 .00257 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-18 (Day 15)
Early run =     3279042     1.9%
Late run  =   165469113    98.1%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .02345  .05325  .07816  .19297  .22130  .18417  .10308  .07426  .03908 .03029 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .19795  .32308  .22256  .11897  .05744  .02974  .03282  .01026  .00308 .00410 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-18 (Day 15)
Chisq =  1148.4655    df =  261 
Early run  =     3603494     2.1%
Std. error =      181265
 
Late run   =   171887668    97.9%
Std. error =     7521404
 
Total run  =   175491162
Std. error =     7523588
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01420  .04569  .07606  .19083  .22193  .18552  .10737  .07970  .04334 .03536 
 
 .00266  .00483  .00622  .00910  .00963  .00901  .00729  .00648  .00495 .00461 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .16395  .30620  .21647  .14011  .07017  .03695  .04304  .01386  .00391 .00534 
 
 .01065  .01408  .01243  .01125  .00844  .00628  .00697  .00407  .00215 .00257 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-19 (Day 16)
Early run =     4002479     2.4%
Late run  =   164745676    97.6%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .02679  .05681  .09700  .19215  .21293  .17413  .10254  .07159  .03695 .02910 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .21354  .35123  .19487  .11085  .05601  .03384  .02450  .00817  .00350 .00350 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-19 (Day 16)
Chisq =  1132.05    df =  261 
Early run  =     4033397     2.2%
Std. error =      186157
 
Late run   =   180348251    97.8%
Std. error =     8022480
 
Total run  =   184381648
Std. error =     8024639
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01745  .05038  .08871  .18919  .21620  .17682  .10722  .07729  .04206 .03467 
 
 .00282  .00490  .00621  .00874  .00926  .00858  .00705  .00619  .00478 .00446 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .18594  .32006  .22197  .12625  .06183  .03806  .02901  .00966  .00356 .00366 
 
 .01220  .01511  .01408  .01136  .00817  .00656  .00590  .00345  .00201 .00208 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-20 (Day 17)
Early run =     5039080     3.0%
Late run  =   163709075    97.0%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .02887  .05909  .10194  .19125  .21019  .17140  .10149  .07082  .03654 .02842 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .21988  .36398  .18758  .10807  .05342  .03230  .02236  .00621  .00248 .00373 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-20 (Day 17)
Chisq =  980.03002    df =  261 
Early run  =     4772510     2.5%
Std. error =      192293
 
Late run   =   187562513    97.5%
Std. error =     8558869
 
Total run  =   192335023
Std. error =     8561029
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01960  .04860  .09251  .18957  .21397  .17421  .10649  .07821  .04240 .03444 
 
 .00291  .00444  .00610  .00848  .00893  .00825  .00681  .00607  .00467 .00432 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .17794  .39556  .20299  .10828  .05135  .03127  .02223  .00564  .00187 .00287 
 
 .01257  .01782  .01450  .01099  .00769  .00609  .00525  .00255  .00137 .00178 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Early run =     5588973     3.3%
Late run  =   163159182    96.7%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .03017  .06428  .10713  .19327  .20638  .16791  .09882  .06909  .03542 .02755 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .23401  .37687  .17959  .09388  .05034  .02993  .02313  .00544  .00272 .00408 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Chisq =  881.39745    df =  261 
Early run  =     5467272     2.8%
Std. error =      202449
 
Late run   =   188667007    97.2%
Std. error =     8762382
 
Total run  =   194134280
Std. error =     8764720
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01929  .05299  .09820  .19172  .20959  .17066  .10528  .07717  .04146 .03363 
 
 .00269  .00451  .00613  .00831  .00864  .00798  .00665  .00591  .00452 .00418 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .24230  .40472  .17600  .08328  .04216  .02474  .01867  .00397  .00164 .00251 
 
 .01662  .01905  .01426  .01002  .00712  .00545  .00472  .00206  .00124 .00161 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-22 (Day 19)
Early run =    10967052     6.5%
Late run  =   157781103    93.5%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .03438  .06489  .11517  .18994  .20327  .16502  .09755  .06790  .03481 .02707 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .23165  .39281  .15683  .09928  .05180  .03165  .02302  .00576  .00288 .00432 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-22 (Day 19)
Chisq =  923.34138    df =  261 
Early run  =     7840880     4.2%
Std. error =      236958
 
Late run   =   178667765    95.8%
Std. error =     8271817
 
Total run  =   186508645
Std. error =     8275211
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .02276  .05420  .10588  .18746  .20549  .16935  .10456  .07612  .04087 .03330 
 
 .00287  .00450  .00626  .00810  .00844  .00787  .00655  .00580  .00443 .00411 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .25617  .41493  .15047  .08639  .04213  .02443  .01743  .00395  .00163 .00248 
 
 .01814  .02002  .01389  .01063  .00736  .00548  .00461  .00208  .00124 .00160 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-23 (Day 20)
Early run =    29954843    17.8%
Late run  =   138793312    82.2%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .03565  .07003  .11630  .18846  .20161  .16299  .09677  .06706  .03438 .02674 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .23574  .38889  .15465  .10060  .05105  .03303  .02252  .00601  .00300 .00450 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-23 (Day 20)
Chisq =  958.33273    df =  261 
Early run  =    22160970    12.6%
Std. error =     1302013
 
Late run   =   153729994    87.4%
Std. error =     7453960
 
Total run  =   175890964
Std. error =     7566819
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .02412  .05887  .10655  .18503  .20512  .16791  .10391  .07528  .04058 .03264 
 
 .00293  .00463  .00619  .00795  .00836  .00777  .00647  .00571  .00437 .00401 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .26022  .41482  .14951  .08701  .03958  .02441  .01635  .00395  .00162 .00251 
 
 .01907  .02094  .01450  .01111  .00723  .00557  .00454  .00211  .00125 .00165 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-24 (Day 21)
Early run =    49955126    29.6%
Late run  =   118793029    70.4%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .03721  .07734  .11831  .18645  .19858  .16054  .09532  .06605  .03386 .02634 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .24127  .37937  .14921  .10317  .05397  .03492  .02381  .00635  .00317 .00476 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-24 (Day 21)
Chisq =  1021.7295    df =  261 
Early run  =    46273193    27.3%
Std. error =     3377027
 
Late run   =   123320778    72.7%
Std. error =     6480144
 
Total run  =   169593970
Std. error =     7307297
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .02575  .06551  .10837  .18424  .20266  .16560  .10236  .07440  .03963 .03149 
 
 .00300  .00482  .00616  .00787  .00824  .00765  .00636  .00563  .00426 .00386 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .26966  .41064  .14390  .08537  .04031  .02497  .01675  .00402  .00170 .00269 
 
 .02036  .02197  .01491  .01124  .00747  .00577  .00470  .00217  .00132 .00179 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-25 (Day 22)
Early run =    90755623    53.8%
Late run  =    77992532    46.2%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .04458  .08466  .11616  .18364  .19591  .15706  .09366  .06462  .03354 .02618 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .22877  .37608  .16118  .10745  .05199  .03813  .02426  .00693  .00173 .00347 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-25 (Day 22)
Chisq =  1125.0481    df =  261 
Early run  =    72047715    42.9%
Std. error =     4555872
 
Late run   =    95909170    57.1%
Std. error =     5751948
 
Total run  =   167956885
Std. error =     7337635
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .03248  .07265  .10760  .18229  .20024  .16215  .10087  .07220  .03848 .03104 
 
 .00335  .00501  .00609  .00777  .00813  .00751  .00626  .00547  .00412 .00378 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .26510  .41590  .14964  .08497  .03676  .02567  .01581  .00397  .00072 .00147 
 
 .02152  .02320  .01563  .01155  .00729  .00600  .00463  .00221  .00081 .00128 
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-26 (Day 23)
Early run =   109922086    65.1%
Late run  =    58826069    34.9%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .05242  .08669  .11452  .18185  .19355  .15484  .09274  .06452  .03306 .02581 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .20480  .38561  .17159  .11070  .05351  .04059  .02399  .00369  .00185 .00369 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-26 (Day 23)
Chisq =  1212.7777    df =  261 
Early run  =    85477790    51.4%
Std. error =     4808392
 
Late run   =    80918501    48.6%
Std. error =     5356651
 
Total run  =   166396291
Std. error =     7198218
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .03940  .07557  .10688  .18113  .19822  .16060  .09939  .07102  .03777 .03002 
 
 .00365  .00508  .00603  .00769  .00803  .00744  .00615  .00535  .00404 .00365 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .25306  .42031  .15771  .08626  .03698  .02635  .01530  .00193  .00068 .00142 
 
 .02259  .02425  .01661  .01207  .00755  .00625  .00472  .00153  .00078 .00131 
 

 
FITTED TRANSITION DATE: 1994-05-21
 
*** The 'Transition Date' is the first day of release for which the
    released smolts show late-run behaviour.
 
*** This analysis assumes that marked smolts are released the day after
    they were taken, so the Transition Date is ONE DAY AFTER the START
    of the LATE RUN.
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Early run =     5588973     3.3%
Late run  =   163159182    96.7%
Total run =   168748155
 
Early run probabilities:
 .03017  .06428  .10713  .19327  .20638  .16791  .09882  .06909  .03542 .02755 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .23401  .37687  .17959  .09388  .05034  .02993  .02313  .00544  .00272 .00408 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Chisq =  881.39745    df =  261 
Early run  =     5467272     2.8%
Std. error =      202449
 
Late run   =   188667005    97.2%
Std. error =     8762382
 
Total run  =   194134278
Std. error =     8764720
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01929  .05299  .09820  .19172  .20959  .17066  .10528  .07717  .04146 .03363 
 
 .00269  .00451  .00613  .00831  .00864  .00798  .00665  .00591  .00452 .00418 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .24230  .40472  .17600  .08328  .04216  .02474  .01867  .00397  .00164 .00251 
 
 .01662  .01905  .01426  .01002  .00712  .00545  .00472  .00206  .00124 .00161 
 

 
PARSIMONIOUS MODEL: NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ESTIMATES
First day of sampling: 1994-05-04
 
Day * Est Mks *   CV * Sample * Rcp *  Run Est *   Lower *    Upper *    Date
  1     30.01  .1393    22586    16      40406     23793      78099  1994-05-04
  2    111.89  .0737     4672    21      24082     15811      40962  1994-05-05
  3    263.26  .0467    15649    29     138762     97576     214076  1994-05-06
  4    587.16  .0294    10051    31     186306    133372     281258  1994-05-07
  5    987.06  .0204     4826    16     285754    182953     521506  1994-05-08
  6   1395.06  .0155    19320    58     459380    358744     612923  1994-05-09
  7   1841.77  .0124     5494    19     514455    340749     885007  1994-05-10
  8   2279.25  .0094     7900    35     504821    369692     738908  1994-05-11
  9   2604.95  .0069    15955    97     425541    351056     528586  1994-05-12
 10   2819.15  .0043    20200   191     297112    258669     345482  1994-05-13
 11   2937.59  .0031    19652   195     295039    257255     342469  1994-05-14
 12   3004.32  .0021    10932   117     279120    234211     339436  1994-05-15
 13   3059.35  .0002    10439   112     283460    236979     346307  1994-05-16
 14   3067.29  .0001    40412   350     353485    318932     394400  1994-05-17
 15   3072.36  .0001    58956   250     722609    640077     823456  1994-05-18
 16   3074.66  .0001    28987   135     656941    557768     787403  1994-05-19
 17   3077.86  .0001   285178   376    2330275   2109976    2589571  1994-05-20
 18   3766.91  .0138   578262   124   17471549  14700463   21159565  1994-05-21
 19   4853.07  .0126   465721    59   37877872  29657681   50375042  1994-05-22
 20   5090.93  .0104   589330    70   42454515  33890134   55023800  1994-05-23
 21   4753.57  .0099   328622    75   20644097  16600454   26499825  1994-05-24
 22   4235.53  .0099   114282    67    7153112   5683747    9328598  1994-05-25
 23   3776.15  .0092    72114    22   12013024   8171616   19757126  1994-05-26
 24   3504.22  .0076    73153    29    8640463   6152635   13202126  1994-05-27
 25   3287.08  .0060    79111    33    7723855   5609784   11449703  1994-05-28
 26   3173.33  .0043   117486    33   11073641   8043597   16413947  1994-05-29
 27   3057.37  .0004    59629    23    7702868   5282546   12503941  1994-05-30
 28   3030.75  .0004    23971    47    1524115   1162400    2103740  1994-05-31
 29   3032.04  .0003    52080    70    2234546   1785470    2893774  1994-06-01
 30   3035.78  .0003    34180    44    2323025   1756667    3245585  1994-06-02
 31   3032.29  .0002    35643    74    1447494   1163398    1860052  1994-06-03
 32   3019.93  .0004    38908    75    1552852   1249819    1991781  1994-06-04
 33   2273.37  .0220    21356    57     841771    654765    1128053  1994-06-05
 34   1059.98  .0542    13506    36     390050    281592     575754  1994-06-06
 35    531.93  .0855    30962    21     758244    493182    1298445  1994-06-07
 36    281.45  .1202    23046     9     667627    358510    1619342  1994-06-08
 37    154.84  .1604    17122     3     715776    280877    4360467  1994-06-09
 38     80.16  .2169    17355     1     815700    224029   54912993  1994-06-10
 39     24.36  .3850    19790     1     273048     61147   19006531  1994-06-11
 40     12.52  .5234     1498     1      10165      1749     738081  1994-06-12
 41      7.47  .6393     2932     0      27322      3725       -999  1994-06-13