BABINE SMOLT MARK-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS
Programed in True BASIC by Peter Macdonald
Voice:  +1 (905) 679-9956
 
Version 1.5 (1999-01-21)
 
Sampling began on 1984-05-07
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
First day of sampling: 1984-05-07
 
Notes:  Recov      Number of smolts from this release group that were
                   eventually recovered.
        Est Marks  Total number of marks in the run on this day, estimated
                   by the 'Constant Sampling Fraction' model.
        Recaps     Total number of recaptures in the sample on this day.
 
Day * Release * Recov * Est Marks *  Sample * Recaps *   Run Est *    Date
  1      1025       2      512.50      4819        1     2469737  1984-05-07
  2      1530      12      512.50      4208        1     2156600  1984-05-08
  3       275       2      127.50       278        1       35445  1984-05-09
  4      2050      37      255.00     11322        2     1443555  1984-05-10
  5      2055      30      127.50      4951        1      631252  1984-05-11
  6      2985      31      333.50     39472        3     4387971  1984-05-12
  7      3070      35       68.50      8007        1      548480  1984-05-13
  8      3030      29      773.57     14473        9     1243981  1984-05-14
  9      3065      28       55.41      6879        1      381134  1984-05-15
 10      3020      22      712.11     11218        9      887606  1984-05-16
 11      3020      40     9961.01     80849      114     7064363  1984-05-17
 12      2990      59     3317.56     87471       34     8535002  1984-05-18
 13      3020      49     2040.83     62278       25     5083945  1984-05-19
 14      3020      50     4741.64     89379       69     6142076  1984-05-20
 15      3040      47     3279.31    205520       45    14976976  1984-05-21
 16      3010      40     4848.03    172670       75    11161452  1984-05-22
 17      3010      53     1543.38     20886       24     1343128  1984-05-23
 18      3065      80     3273.96     62157       46     4423902  1984-05-24
 19      2985     116     2052.30     46632       34     2814784  1984-05-25
 20      2960      76     3140.85     23953       75     1003104  1984-05-26
 21      2905     103     3528.29     44471       85     1845957  1984-05-27
 22      2980      66     2483.02     39673       65     1515520  1984-05-28
 23      2990      60     2793.39     22341       79      789964  1984-05-29
 24      2950      45     4437.30     21724      114      845579  1984-05-30
 25      1860      29     2172.84      9643       53      395335  1984-05-31
 26      1685      16     2045.43      6024       42      293373  1984-06-01
 27       940       5     2284.68     10909       43      579618  1984-06-02
 28       970      11     3143.06      8256       51      508805  1984-06-03
 29       870       8     3410.68      5748       48      408429  1984-06-04
 30         0       0      581.57      2296        9      148364  1984-06-05
 31         0       0      445.82      2471        7      157374  1984-06-06
 32         0       0      152.32       651        2       49580  1984-06-07
 33         0       0      628.87      2620        7      235377  1984-06-08
 34         0       0      108.75       341        1       37084  1984-06-09
 35         0       0      196.93      1029        2      101321  1984-06-10
 36         0       0      285.11       828        3       78691  1984-06-11
 
Total run =    84724864
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Early run =           0      .0%
Late run  =    84724864   100.0%
Total run =    84724864
 
Early run probabilities:
 .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000 .10000 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .01524  .09060  .24979  .20406  .14141  .10076  .07959  .05588  .03472 .02794 
 

 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Chisq =  554.31874    df =  242 
Early run  =           0      .0%
Std. error =           0
 
Late run   =   101381831   100.0%
Std. error =    12135536
 
Total run  =   101381831
Std. error =    12135536
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000 .10000 
 
 .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000 .00000 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01591  .09689  .25891  .20536  .13674  .09535  .07632  .05261  .03470 .02720 
 
 .00383  .00893  .01299  .01182  .00988  .00836  .00761  .00636  .00537 .00471 
 
 
FITTED TRANSITION DATE: 1984-05-05
 
*** The 'Transition Date' is the first day of release for which the
    released smolts show late-run behaviour.
 
*** This analysis assumes that marked smolts are released the day after
    they were taken, so the Transition Date is ONE DAY AFTER the START
    of the LATE RUN.
 
 
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Early run =           0      .0%
Late run  =    84724864   100.0%
Total run =    84724864
 
Early run probabilities:
 .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000 .10000 
 
Late run probabilities:
 .01524  .09060  .24979  .20406  .14141  .10076  .07959  .05588  .03472 .02794 
 
 
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Chisq =  554.31874    df =  242 
Early run  =           0      .0%
Std. error =           0
 
Late run   =   101381831   100.0%
Std. error =    12135536
 
Total run  =   101381831
Std. error =    12135536
 
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000  .10000 .10000 
 
 .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000  .00000 .00000 
 
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
 .01591  .09689  .25891  .20536  .13674  .09535  .07632  .05261  .03470 .02720 
 
 .00383  .00893  .01299  .01182  .00988  .00836  .00761  .00636  .00537 .00471 
 

 
PARSIMONIOUS MODEL: NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ESTIMATES
First day of sampling: 1984-05-07
 
Day * Est Mks *   CV * Sample * Rcp *  Run Est *   Lower *    Upper *    Date
  1     16.31  .2408     4819     1      45908     12337    3101680  1984-05-07
  2    123.65  .0863     4208     1     309243     91810   20550030  1984-05-08
  3    418.00  .0408      278     1      69198     20777    4589698  1984-05-09
  4    665.89  .0299    11322     2    2818528   1041095   31137330  1984-05-10
  5    756.88  .0289     4951     1    2232116    671286  148010008  1984-05-11
  6   1140.79  .0229    39472     3   12260472   5128280   72809937  1984-05-12
  7   1552.82  .0179     8007     1    7407349   2229929  491092989  1984-05-13
  8   2017.76  .0145    14473     9    3020158   1707844    7099014  1984-05-14
  9   2363.72  .0116     6879     1    9687687   2917456  642236382  1984-05-15
 10   2616.00  .0085    11218     9    3035101   1717175    7131892  1984-05-16
 11   2776.73  .0066    80849   114    1957779   1638446    2388326  1984-05-17
 12   2873.13  .0053    87471    34    7249291   5288568   10674770  1984-05-18
 13   2966.30  .0023    62278    25    7197245   5005542   11418676  1984-05-19
 14   2992.45  .0015    89379    69    3839155   3062811    4982050  1984-05-20
 15   3018.90  .0002   205520    45   13586248  10304067   18902564  1984-05-21
 16   3021.75  .0002   172670    75    6895559   5549921    8844650  1984-05-22
 17   3023.02  .0002    20886    24    2559601   1768095    4105992  1984-05-23
 18   3020.20  .0002    62157    46    4022675   3059550    5574198  1984-05-24
 19   3020.32  .0002    46632    34    4062724   2964401    5981632  1984-05-25
 20   3024.75  .0003    23953    75     957510    770656    1228159  1984-05-26
 21   3010.93  .0004    44471    85    1563018   1273966    1972149  1984-05-27
 22   2990.99  .0004    39673    65    1807019   1432280    2365397  1984-05-28
 23   2972.46  .0005    22341    79     833567    674479    1061761  1984-05-29
 24   2973.57  .0004    21724   114     563352    471692     686950  1984-05-30
 25   2956.41  .0015     9643    53     531214    411223     718101  1984-05-31
 26   2840.52  .0038     6024    42     401040    301372     565335  1984-06-01
 27   2523.01  .0070    10909    43     630293    475021     884685  1984-06-02
 28   2177.42  .0098     8256    51     347924    267881     473686  1984-06-03
 29   1799.17  .0134     5748    48     212484    162271     292511  1984-06-04
 30   1501.13  .0158     2296     9     356439    201532     837896  1984-06-05
 31   1195.64  .0197     2471     7     385180    204550    1050417  1984-06-06
 32    811.10  .0298      651     2     197404     72917    2180783  1984-06-07
 33    516.64  .0406     2620     7     176399     93279     482224  1984-06-08
 34    315.51  .0499      341     1      64050     19200    4249397  1984-06-09
 35    195.89  .0631     1029     2      75278     27611     833469  1984-06-10
 36    105.00  .0818      828     3      23624      9728     141181  1984-06-11