|
SPEAKER: |
|
|
TITLE: |
"A computer-based predictive model of Multiple Sclerosis progression in relapsing patients" |
|
DAY: |
Wednesday, January 19, 2000 |
|
TIME: |
3:30 p.m. [Coffee & cookies in BSB-202 at 3:00 p.m.] |
|
PLACE: |
BSB-108 |
This presentation provides some uses of statistical methods in a pharmoeconomic model. Background information on the need for models in pharmoeconomics; the structure of the model; the inputs of the model; and the outcomes of the model will be discussed. Statistical methods used for calculating transition state probabilities that are time dependent will be illustrated. Validation procedures used to compare model results with epidemiological data will also be given. Note that the presentation will be more informative than theoretical in nature.
Dr John Walker, Senior Analyst, has been working at Innovus since August 1997. During this time, he has actively participated in a number of retrospective and prospective health economic and quality-of-life studies. His involvement has included the development of several models, including a Semi-Markov Chain model that required complex analyses as well as Monte Carlo Simulations. He has utilized a variety of software programmes, including Crystal Ball, MINITAB, and SAS. Dr Walker is currently a part-time lecturer with the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at McMaster University. Dr Walker's previous work experience includes 3 years of business consulting and teaching in St. Petersburg, Russia. He has also taught high school Mathematics and Production/Operations Management and Statistics courses at Brock University, at McMaster University, and at Wilfrid Laurier University. His academic training includes a B.Sc. (Hons) in Chemistry and Mathematics from the University of Waterloo; a B.Ed. in the Intermediate/Senior Divisions (Chemistry and Mathematics) from Brock University; an M.B.A. in Management Science from McMaster University; and a Ph.D. in Business - Major: Management Science/Information Systems, Minors: Finance and Statistics - from McMaster University.
The references below, which Dr Walker has suggested as useful background for his talk, have been placed on reserve at Thode Library (STATS 770: Statistics Seminar):
[1] Briggs, Andrew and Mark Sculpher, An Introduction to Markov Modelling for Economic Evaluation, Pharmacoeconomics 1998 April;13(4): 397-409.
[2] Sonnenberg, Frank A. and J. Robert Beck, Markov Models in Medical Decision Making: A Practical Guide, Medical Decision Making 1993 Oct-Dec;13(4):322-338.
[3] Sonnenberg, Frank A. and Elaine A. Leventhal, Modeling Disease Progression with Markov Models Chapter 2.3 pgs 171-195 in Health Economics of Dementia 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, edited by Wimo et. al.