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Special Math Biology Seminar HH 410 - Robert Smith? - Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination



Speaker: Dr. Robert Smith? (University of Ottawa)

Title: Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection
that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has
shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types
now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing
mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model
vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy,
and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse
vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free
equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilized under certain
extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine.
Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the
impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be achieved with
75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine
that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall
prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.

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McMaster University - Faculty of Science | Math & Stats