HH410


Speaker: Dr. Robert Smith? (University of Ottawa)

Title: Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus
Vaccination

Abstract:
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection
that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has
shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types
now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing
mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model
vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy,
and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse
vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free
equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilized under certain
extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine.
Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the
impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be achieved with
75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine
that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall
prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.