Mathematical Biology Seminar | Richard Zhao (McMaster) |
Nov 27, 2025
2:30PM to 3:30PM
Date/Time
Date(s) - 27/11/2025
2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
Speaker: Richard Zhao (McMaster University)
Date/Time: Thursday November 27th 14:30pm EST
Location: HH312 (& on zoom)
Title: Improving Infectious Disease Prevalence Estimation and Parameter Inference Using Number of Tests and Positivity Data
Abstract: Prevalence of infection is a critical variable for modeling infectious dynamics and public health decision-making. However, estimating true prevalence from surveillance data remains challenging. Here we discuss three novel attempts to model testing mechanism using the beta-distribution, hazard rates and odds ratios respectively. These methods aim to link prevalence with the number of tests, test positivity, and some test characteristics at each data point in a robust, flexible, and theoretically justified manner. We further present a data-fitting framework based on the odds ratio approach and demonstrate its performance using simulated datasets as a proof of concept.
Zoom link: https://mcmaster.zoom.us/j/98308755554 (Passcode: MathBio)