Date/Time Date(s) - 29/01/202610:30 am - 11:30 am
Speaker: Amy Hurford (Memorial University)
Location: Hamilton Hall, Room 410 & Zoom
Title: The modelling advancements needed to support future pandemic preparedness in Canada
Abstract: Infectious disease modelling is essential to support public health decisions and its value was highlighted during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, models intended to support national or large jurisdictions may not support the decisions, policy, or situational awareness needs of small jurisdictions. As an example, from 2020-22 Atlantic Canada and the territories experienced long periods with no community spread of SARS-CoV-2. Healthcare decision-making in Canada is decentralized and small jurisdictions need to be supported with specific modelling approaches, some of which are yet to be developed. In this talk, I will describe: (1) summary statistics that inform situational awareness and decision-making for jurisdictions where community outbreaks occur only sporadically; (2) a counterfactual simulation framework for such situations; and (3) the need for theory that describes when travel measures and elimination strategies are appropriate. This work is in collaboration with Michael Li (PHAC), Abdou Fofana (Memorial University) and others, and builds on ideas developed by Maria Martignoni (Georgia Tech).